stats and snakeoil

2022

2022-02-06
Extensions to xThreat
2022-01-02
How much do Newcastle need to improve in January?

2021

2021-11-20
Should we stop using moving averages?
2021-06-24
How to estimate team strength from xG totals
2021-06-17
What can time-discount rates tell us about xG and Goals?
2021-06-09
Does xG really tell us everything about team performance?
2021-06-01
Data-driven football scarves
2021-05-28
Tools for tiny teams
2021-05-18
understat-db: creating a database of one's own
2021-04-25
The dumbest xG model
2021-04-11
An experiment with auto-highlights
2021-01-24
Are bad shots actually good?

2020

2020-10-15
Fully Automated Luxury Commentary
2020-10-07
Diagonal gridlines in 2 ways
2020-08-22
Three things to improve football coverage
2020-08-10
Finding the most versatile player
2020-07-26
Estimating the disruption to home advantage
2020-06-25
How to count minutes played

2019

2019-01-06
Predicting the Premier League with Dixon-Coles and xG
2019-01-01
Predicting the Premier League with Dixon-Coles

2018

2018-10-13
How to predict a football match (slides)
2018-08-09
OptaPro Forum 2018 (slides)
2018-07-15
What a diff'rence xG makes
2018-06-22
Dixon Coles and xG: together at last
2018-06-04
Modelling the World Cup with regista
2018-04-22
Klopp - Paper - Scissors
2018-04-01
Evaluating market ratings

2017

2017-12-18
Tracking team strength over time
2017-11-29
Cascarino's alternate timeline
2017-11-06
Show me the moneyline